STM ThinkTech, Turkey’s first technology-based think-tank, will deliver a new version of the NATO Resilience Decision Support Model to the alliance in December, marking the organisation’s third NATO project.

The model is intended to assist NATO’s decision-making processes when faced with strategic shocks such as the current pandemic, electricity blackouts, cyber attacks or mass migration. STM is developing an aggregated model to assess the integrated resilience of eight NATO nations through open source strategic shock data. Known as the NATO SHAPE Aggregated Resilience Decision Support Model, analyses the effects of large-scale complex problems in support of decision-makers. The model was contracted for in August this year.

The Aggregated Resilience Decision Support Model focuses on the sustainability of aggregated resilience capacity and analyses the strategic effects of, and the critical changes resulting from the types of strategic shock enumerated above, assessing their possible consequences on both civilian and military systems. With the developed model, the effects of strategic shocks and their associated risks can be analysed for specific scenarios. This provides NATO with decision support at a strategic level and facilitates decision-making authorities in their selection of the steps to be taken and the measures they can take.

NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT) solicited proposals to address the “assessment of NATO’s resilience capacity” problem in August 2018. STM’s solution approach and methodology was accepted by ACT, and after the first contract was signed in October 2019, the first prototype model was completed and delivered. A second contract was signed in February 2020 for the upgraded version of the first model, which was successfully run in a NATO-wide online workshop in April. For this latest model, strategic shock data collected from open sources will be processed using multiple machine learning algorithms.


The Aggregated Resilience Decision Support Model will assist NATO in its decision-making processes when facing strategic shocks. (Graphic: STM ThinkTech)

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